The results of the first
statewide random sample study conducted in the U.S. to measure the spread of
COVID-19 indicates a general population prevalence in Indiana of 2.8
percent.
The study was conducted by
the Indiana University Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health at IUPUI
in collaboration with the Indiana State Department of Health. The findings
were published on Tuesday in “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,” the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s scientific publication.
“Using data to
guide decisions has been the foundation of how the State of Indiana responds
to the pandemic,” Gov. Eric Holcomb said in a statement released after
deadline on Tuesday. “We are fortunate to have the Fairbanks School of
Public Health conduct this first-of-a-kind study for us and look forward to
the information that will come with future waves of the random sample
testing.”
Between April 25 and May 1,
researchers tested more than 4,600 Hoosiers for viral infections and
antibodies of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19. These
4,600 include more than 3,600 people who were randomly selected from a
master list of Indiana residents derived from tax returns, including filers
and independents, plus “an additional 900 volunteers recruited through a
non-random outreach to the African-American and Hispanic communities to get
a more in-depth view of the virus’ activity within hard-hit populations,”
the statement said.
“Because we cannot
test everyone, random sample testing allows us to confidently evaluate the
spread of COVID-19 in Indiana,” said Nir Menachemi, lead scientist on the
study and professor and Fairbanks Endowed Chair at the Fairbanks School of
Public Health. “The results of this study have furthered our scientific
knowledge of COVID-19 and contributed valuable information that influenced
statewide decision-making.”
The results: researchers
have determined that 1.7 percent of participants tested positive for the
novel coronavirus, while an additional 1.1 percent tested positive for
antibodies, for an estimated overall population prevalence of 2.8 percent.
Or in other words, an “estimated 187,802 Hoosiers were infected with
COVID-19 at the time of the study, approximately 10 times higher than the
confirmed cases in the state.”
More: study participants
who reported living with someone who tested positive for COVID-19 had a
prevalence rate of 33.6 percent. “The percentage of participants who had a
positive test result was 15 times higher among participants who lived with
someone who had received a diagnosis of COVID-19,” Menachemi said. “Coupled
with the low statewide prevalence, we believe that social-distancing efforts
helped to minimize the spread of COVID-19 and is an important measure in
preventing transmission.”
The research team also
found that 44.2 percent of participants who tested positive reported no
symptoms during the two weeks prior to testing. Of those who tested
positive, 60.3 percent of males reported being asymptomatic, compared to
24.5 percent of females who reported being asymptomatic.
“The study’s
findings among asymptomatic individuals are crucial to our efforts to
mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Indiana,” State Health Commissioner Kris
Box said. “Hoosiers may not feel sick but can still infect someone else, so
it’s vital that every Hoosier takes steps to reduce the spread of this
virus.”
Rates of current or
previous infection were significantly higher among Hispanic participants, at
8.32 percent, than among non-Hispanics, at 2.29 percent.
The non-random sample,
meanwhile, had higher infection rates, including 22.8 percent of
participants who were currently infected, 20 percent of whom reported being
asymptomatic. “These findings suggest that non-random samples are more
suitable for determining the impact of the virus in vulnerable communities,
but not for deriving state estimates of infections,” the statement said.
“Because most
Hoosiers had not been infected at the time of the study, we need to continue
social-distancing, make sure we are washing our hands, and always wearing a
mask when we are in public,” Menachemi said.
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Posted 7/22/2020
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