NEW YORK (AP) —
A decades-long trend of rising life expectancy in the U.S. could be
ending: It declined last year and it is no better than it was four years
ago.
In most of the
years since World War II, life expectancy in the U.S. has inched up,
thanks to medical advances, public health campaigns and better nutrition
and education.
But last year
it slipped, an exceedingly rare event in a year that did not include a
major disease outbreak. Other one-year declines occurred in 1993, when
the nation was in the throes of the AIDS epidemic, and 1980, the result
of an especially nasty flu season.
In 2015, rates
for 8 of the 10 leading causes of death rose. Even more troubling to
health experts: the U.S. seems to be settling into a trend of no
improvement at all.
"With four
years, you're starting to see some indication of something a little more
ominous," said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago public
health researcher.
An American
born in 2015 is expected to live 78 years and 9½ months, on average,
according to preliminary data released Thursday by the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention. An American born in 2014 could expect to
live about month longer, and even an American born in 2012 would have
been expected to live slightly longer. In 1950, life expectancy was just
over 68 years.
The United
States ranks below dozens of other high-income countries in life
expectancy, according to the World Bank. It is highest in Japan, at
nearly 84 years.
The CDC report
is based mainly on 2015 death certificates. There were more than 2.7
million deaths, or about 86,000 more than the previous year. The
increase in raw numbers partly reflects the nation's growing and aging
population.
It was led by
an unusual upturn in the death rate from the nation's leading killer,
heart disease. Death rates also increased for chronic lower lung
disease, accidental injuries, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes,
kidney disease and suicide.
The only clear
drop was in cancer, the nation's No. 2 killer.
Experts aren't
sure what's behind the stall. Some, like Olshansky, suspect obesity, an
underlying factor in some of the largest causes of death, particularly
heart disease.
But there's
also the impact of rising drug overdoses and suicides, he noted. "There
are a lot of things happening at the same time," he said.
Some years the
CDC later revises its life expectancy estimate after doing additional
analysis, including for its 2014 estimate.
Average life
expectancy declined for men, falling by more than two months, to 76
years and 3 ½ months in 2015. It fell by about one month for women, to
81 years and 2 ½ months, the CDC said.
Death rates
increased for black men, white men, white women, and slightly for
Hispanic men and women. But they did not change for black women.
The new CDC
report did not offer a geographic breakdown of 2015 deaths, or analysis
of death based on education or income. But other research has shown
death rates are rising sharply for poorer people — particularly white
people — in rural areas but not wealthier and more highly educated and
people on the coasts.
"The troubling
trends are most pronounced for the people who are the most
disadvantaged," said Jennifer Karas Montez, a Syracuse University
researcher who studies adult death patterns.
"But if we
don't know why life expectancy is decreasing for some groups, we can't
be confident that it won't start declining for others," she said.