TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. (AP) — Closing shipping locks in Chicago waterways to prevent Asian carp from invading the Great Lakes would cost the area economy about $4.7 billion over two decades, according to an analysis released Wednesday.

That report from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce envisions a far greater economic ripple than a February study commissioned by the state of Michigan, which is leading a legal campaign to close the locks temporarily while a long-term solution to the Asian carp threat is devised.

The new “study shows, through well-reasoned economics, that closing these locks will have a devastating effect on our local economy, resulting in the loss of potentially hundreds of area jobs and hurting a range of industries and services,” said Jim Farrell, executive director of the Illinois chamber’s Infrastructure Council.

Bighead and silver carp, both Asian natives, have infested Chicago-area rivers and canals that link Lake Michigan with the Illinois River and ultimately the Mississippi River. Biologists say the plankton-gobbling invaders, which eat up to 40 percent of their body weight daily, could enter the Great Lakes through the locks and disrupt the food chain, starving out valued species such as salmon and walleye.

The U.S. Supreme Court twice has rejected Michigan’s request to order the locks closed.

In their February report, transportation specialist John Taylor of Wayne State University in Detroit and James Roach, a consultant, said Illinois was overstating the economic damage closing the locks could cause.

They estimated it would boost the costs of transporting and hauling cargo by about $70 million annually — a fraction of Chicago’s $521 billion economy.

That figure would remain constant as long as shipping traffic continued at current levels, Roach said — suggesting a total of about $1.4 billion over 20 years.

The Illinois chamber last week released reviews by three economists that criticized the methods and conclusions in the Michigan report, which the chamber described as “irresponsible and inaccurate.”

Joseph Schwieterman of DePaul University, the author of the Illinois report, said in a phone interview that his analysis was not intended to refute Taylor and Roach, but to take a broader look at potential economic hardships from closing the locks.

In addition to shipping cost increases, which he calculated at $89 million, Schwieterman said shifting cargo to trucks would cost $27.5 million a year in highway wear and tear.

He projected losses of $5.1 million for marinas and other boating facilities and $19.6 million for tour and cruise companies.

“The tourism role is a small part of the overall potential damage but it’s a large and vibrant industry at risk,” he said.

Stormwater and flood management would be the most expensive result of lock closure, he said. If the locks no longer could be used to regulate river levels and send excess flow into Lake Michigan, a $1.8 billion underground tunnel would have to be constructed.

Schwieterman estimated losses at $582 million the first year after lock closure, $531 annually over the next seven years, and $155 million annually thereafter. Over 20 years, he said, the total would reach $4.7 billion.

Taylor said Wednesday his study focused only on shipping costs at the request of Michigan officials who commissioned it. On that topic, his and Schwieterman’s findings were not far apart, he said.

“This is not going to be an exact science,” Taylor said.

Farrell said Michigan had used the Taylor-Roach study and DNA evidence of Asian carp’s presence beyond an electronic barrier in the Chicago waterways to stir unjustified fears of an imminent invasion.

“We want to be positive contributors to solving this problem, but we want to do it without harming the economy,” he said.

John Sellek, spokesman for Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, said the Illinois study exaggerated potential economic damages, but “even if you accepted their study, their 20-year loss pales in comparison to the $7 billion the Great Lakes fishing industry generates every year.”

Posted 4/8/2010