WASHINGTON (AP) -
El Nino this winter will leave a big wet but not necessarily snowy footprint
on much of the United States, including parched California, forecasters said
Thursday.
The National
Oceanic Atmospheric Administration issued its winter forecast and “the
driver of this winter’s outlook is El Nino,” said Mike Halpert, deputy
director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino changes
weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter. The weather
pattern happens every few years when the Pacific Ocean warms up around the
equator. This year’s is one of the strongest El Ninos on record.
NOAA expects a
cooler and wetter winter for the South. For California, more precipitation
than usual is expected during the critical time that its reservoirs usually
fill, but there’s no guarantee. Only northern tier states, the Ohio Valley
states and Alaska should be dry.
While California’s
drought is likely to lessen in January, even the wettest winter on record -
33 years ago - didn’t have enough rain to wash out the current four-year
drought, said NOAA hydrologist Alan Haynes of the California Nevada River
Forecast Center.
Forecasters see a
milder, warmer winter north of the Mason-Dixon line and for all of
California and Nevada. Texas and the Deep South are forecast to be cold.
Overall, the nation
should have 2 percent fewer days when people have to fire up their furnaces,
said Halpert. He said the Northeast, where it was chilly and snowy last
year, should see 6 percent fewer heating days.
Because of El Nino,
NOAA is more confident than usual that its forecast is on target - 70
percent for a wet South, Halpert said.
The federal winter
forecast doesn’t address snow, just wet or dry and warm or cold. Even though
it’s likely to be both cooler and wetter in the South, it is usually so warm
there that it needs a blast of Arctic air for snowstorms and that’s not
looking likely, Halpert said. And while the north is likely to be warmer,
past El Ninos have had some big snowstorms.
Historically,
because there’s more storminess during El Ninos, there’s been a slight but
not great increase in snowfall in the Northeast during El Ninos, said NOAA
El Nino expert Michelle L’Heureux. But that could be skewed by a few big
years in the past like the winter of 2009-10, she said. The Great Lakes area
tends to get less snow during El Ninos, she said.
Private forecast
firm Weather Bell Analytics predicts a swath from New Mexico across to the
Carolinas and up the coast to Connecticut will get 50 percent more snow than
usual.
AccuWeather,
another private firm, sees severe thunderstorms in Florida, but forecasts
less lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes, occasional mild days for the
Midwest and says it will be “not as brutal” for the Northeast.