WASHINGTON (AP)
— This probably comes as no surprise: Federal scientists say July was the
hottest month ever recorded in the Lower 48 states, breaking a record set
during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.
And even less a
surprise: The U.S. this year keeps setting records for weather extremes,
based on the precise calculations that include drought, heavy rainfall,
unusual temperatures, and storms.
The average
temperature last month was 77.6 degrees. That breaks the old record from
July 1936 by 0.2 degree, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. Records go back to 1895.
"It's a pretty
significant increase over the last record," said climate scientist Jake
Crouch of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In the
past, skeptics of global warming have pointed to the Dust Bowl to argue that
recent heat isn't unprecedented. But Crouch said this shows that the current
year "is out and beyond those Dust Bowl years. We're rivaling and beating
them consistently from month to month."
Three of the
nation's five hottest months on record have been recent Julys: This year,
2011 and 2006. Julys in 1936 and 1934 round out the top five.
Last month also
was 3.3 degrees warmer than the 20th century average for July.
Thirty-two
states had months that were among their 10 warmest Julys, but only one,
Virginia, had the hottest July on record. Crouch said that's a bit unusual,
but that it shows the breadth of the heat and associated drought.
For example in
2011, the heat seemed to be centered mostly in Oklahoma and Texas. But this
summer "the epicenters of the heat kind of migrated around. It kind of got
everybody in the action this month," Crouch said.
The first seven
months of 2012 were the warmest on record for the nation. And August 2011
through July this year was the warmest 12-month period on record, just
beating out the July 2011-June 2012 time period.
But it's not
just the heat that's noteworthy. NOAA has a measurement called the U.S.
Climate Extreme Index which dates to 1900 and follows several indicators of
unusually high and low temperatures, severe drought, downpours, and tropical
storms and hurricanes. NOAA calculates the index as a percentage, which
mostly reflects how much of the nation experience extremes. In July, the
index was 37 percent, a record that beat the old mark for July last year.
The average is 20 percent.
For the first
seven months of the year, the extreme index was 46 percent, beating the old
record from 1934. This year's extreme index was heavily driven by high
temperatures both day and night, which is unusual, Crouch said.
"This would not
have happened in the absence of human-caused climate change," said
Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.
Crouch and Kevin
Trenberth, climate analysis chief of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, said what's happening is a double whammy of weather and climate
change. They point to long-term higher night temperatures from global
warming and the short-term effect of localized heat and drought that spike
daytime temperatures.
Drought is a
major player because in the summer "if it is wet, it tends to be cool, while
if it is dry, it tends to be hot," Trenberth said.
So the record in
July isn't such a big deal, Trenberth said. "But the fact that the first
seven months of the year are the hottest on record is much more impressive
from a climate standpoint, and highlights the fact that there is more than
just natural variability playing a role: Global warming from human
activities has reared its head in a way that can only be a major warning for
the future."
Here are some
more numbers unlikely to provide cold comfort. The coolest July on record
was in 1915. The coldest month in U.S. history was January 1979 with an
average temperature of 22.6 degrees.