The warming,
called an El Nino, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and
more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states,
and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year,
meteorologists say.
While it could be
good news to lessen the southwestern U.S. drought and shrink heating bills
next winter in the far north, "worldwide it can be quite a different
story," said North Carolina State University atmospheric sciences
professor Ken Kunkel. "Some areas benefit. Some don't."
Globally, it can
mean an even hotter year coming up and billions of dollars in losses for
food crops.
The National
Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Nino watch
Thursday. An El Nino is a warming of the central Pacific once every few
years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up
climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns.
Mike Halpert,
acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says the El Nino
warming should develop by this summer, but that there are no guarantees.
Although early signs are appearing already a few hundred feet below the
ocean surface, meteorologists say an El Nino started to brew in 2012 and
then shut down suddenly and unexpectedly.
The flip side of
El Nino is called a La Nina, which has a general cooling effect. It has
been much more frequent than El Ninos lately, with five La Ninas and two
small-to-moderate El Ninos in the past nine years. The last big El Nino
was 1997-1998. Neither has appeared since mid-2012. El Ninos are usually
strongest from December to April.
Kevin Trenberth,
a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who
wasn't part of NOAA's forecast, agreed that an El Nino is brewing.
"This could be a
substantial event and I think we're due," Trenberth said. "And I think it
could have major consequences."
Halpert said it
is too early to say how strong this El Nino will be. The last four have
been weak or moderate and those have fewer effects on weather.
Scientific
studies have tied El Ninos to farming and fishing problems and to upticks
in insect-born disease, such as malaria. Commodity traders even track El
Nino cycles. A study by Texas A&M University economics professor Bruce
McCarl found the last big El Nino of 1997-1998 cost about $3 billion in
agricultural damage.
Trenberth said
this El Nino may even push the globe out of a decade-long slowdown in
temperature increase, "so suddenly global warming kicks into a whole new
level."
Kunkel said if
this El Nino is a strong one, global temperatures, probably in 2015, could
"be in near record breaking territory."
Halpert, however,
says El Ninos can be beneficial, and that the one being forecast is "a
perfect case."
After years of
dryness and low reservoirs, an El Nino's wet weather would be welcome in
places like California, Halpert said.
"If they get too
much rain, I think they'd rather have that situation rather than another
year of drought," Halpert said. "Sometimes you have to pick your poison."
Australia and
South Africa should be dry while parts of South America become dry and
parts become wet in an El Nino. Peru suffers the most, getting floods and
poorer fishing.
The climate event
got the name El Nino, meaning the boy in Spanish, when it was first
noticed off the coast of Peru and Ecuador around Christmas time and was
named after Christ child, according to Trenberth.
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